October 21, 2005

Quick Hurricane Wilma Update

Carroll Andrew Morse

Greetings to readers from outside of New England! These updates are targeted to the concerns of New Englanders, and the times and events cited may not be relevant to hurricane preparations elsewhere. Please consult the National Hurricane Center for the most up to date nationwide information.

At least one computer model (GFDL) is now predicting that Wilma passes directly over Cape Cod, probably at tropical storm force. This prediction is the outlier. The other predictions, and the National Hurricane Center official forecast track, have Wilma passing far to the east of New England, safely out to sea.

I will reiterate my warning: dont be deceived by fact that Wilma has been near-stationary while off of the coast of Mexico. After the storm crosses Florida and enters the North Atlantic, it will be only 24-36 hours before it reaches New England latitudes. Hopefully, at New England latitudes, Wilma will also be at Mid-Atlantic longitudes, but just in case, be prepared to prepare.

The forecasters will know much more in about a day and a half, after Wilma moves off of the Yucatan peninsula and back into the ocean.

Projected Entry into the North Atlantic: Early Tuesday Morning
Projected Arrival at New England Latitudes: Mid-Wednesday Morning