November 4, 2009

Looks Like a Turnaround

Justin Katz

We'll hear all sorts of contradictory analyses, in the days to come, among which will be assurances that there are no broad conclusions to be drawn, but key votes up and down the East Coast, yesterday, certainly don't disprove the notion of a turnaround toward our nation's Republican, conservative strain:

  • Republican Chris Christie took the New Jersey governor seat from Democrat Jon Corzine.
  • Republican Bob McDonnell took the Virginia governor seat from Democrat Creigh Deeds.
  • Democrat Bill Owens narrowly won a New York Congressional District race, with 49% of the vote, against Conservative Doug Hoffman's 46% and RINO Dierdre Scozzafava's 6%. Had the Republicans not gone with the "Republican who can win" and attacked the Conservative, it isn't unreasonable to suggest that they would have won that race, too.
  • Voters in Maine nullified the legislature's imposition of same-sex marriage, for the state, making it the 31st of 31 states in which the people have affirmed the traditional definition of marriage, regardless of the imperious maneuverings of judges and votes bought by ultrarich left-wing activists.

Actually, looking at that last bullet point, it mightn't be accurate to characterize the national results as "a turnaround." After all, President Obama supported traditional marriage, as a candidate, and ran overall as a centrist, even a fiscal conservative in some fevered minds. If there's a lesson in this for the president, it's probably that the people of the United States of America have figured out that he lied.

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The best thing about last night is that Obama had used personal political capital in campaigning for Corzine and Deeds and it didn't work.
Virginia is the more important win because Corzine was in so much trouble it's doubtful anyone could've helped him win.
Virginia went for Obama by 220,000 votes in '08 and his candidate lot by 370,000 this time out.
The "Klauses" and thier ilk at Kmareka and RIF better revise their thinking about the conservative populist sentiment just being a setup by the insurance companies.This oughta throw some cold water on Barry's arrogant attitude.

Posted by: joe bernstein at November 4, 2009 7:03 AM

How about a little closer to home where Republican Leo Fontaine defeated serial candidate and Democrat Todd Brien for the Mayor's seat in Woonsocket.

If a city like Woonsocket can keep a Republican in the Mayor's Office (though some would seriously question Menard's Republican credentials) then what excuse does any other city or town around the state have?

Posted by: Patrick at November 4, 2009 7:52 AM

New Jersey has little bearing on the national trend. If Corzine had pulled it out, we would've been hearing about Daggett. Each side had a built-in excuse.
In every Virginia gubernatorial election since '89, the party that won the White House lost. Competitive state...and will remain that way.
In one of the reddest congressional districts in the nation, Glenn Beck and Sarah Palin couldn't bring their boy home. If Obama got slapped yesterday, so did the teabaggers.
Finally, the sky did not fall in Maine. Last year, gay marriage got 48 percent in a pretty liberal state. Yesterday, it got 48 percent in a more conservative state. Progress, not as fast as I'd like, but progress nonetheless.
So what happens if Steve Christie governs like Christie Todd Whitman?

Posted by: rhody at November 4, 2009 11:03 AM

I'm not encouraged. I'd have been more optimistic if Hoffman had won in NY-23.

His loss lets the D.C. GOP establishment off the hook and leaves them resting on their laurels. For the national GOP, Nov '09 is nothing more than that down-hill portion of the race where you don't have to peddle as hard, if at all. When the climb into '10 begins, I still don't see them as yet fit enough to make the grade.

Posted by: George at November 4, 2009 11:15 AM

You're a spinster Rhody. Keep spinning away. It's all you union thugs know how to do.

And I love how Bernstein thinks that a win by a Republican in traditionally Democrat NJ is less remarkable than the Republican win in tradtionally Republican Virginia. He shows his ignorance on everything but immigration once again.

Posted by: Robespierre at November 4, 2009 11:16 AM

robespierre-talk about ignorant.You don't seem to know that NJ has elected a number of Republican governors and many Republican Congressmen in the last 20-30 years.corzine was in deep crap from the get-go in this election,and Menendez(?) barely scraped by previously.I'd be willing to take a general knowledge test against you any day(excluding math-I will concede any 4th grader can beat me at that),but since you don't even use your name,it's probably a waste of time to bring it up.

Posted by: joe bernstein at November 4, 2009 12:42 PM

Poor, delusional Robespierre - thinks there's room for cockiness. Neither side had any room before and after this election.
I agree with Joe - Jersey has always been a competitive state, even if it's gone blue in recent presidential elections. Christie ran the better campaign, and was smart enough to keep his distance from the Beck/Palin crowd.

Posted by: rhody at November 4, 2009 1:14 PM

Joe you're spot on in your analysis of the importance of the Virginia vote. Just a year ago independent voters in that state bought the Obama campaign lie. Yesterday, only one year out they went completely the other way.
In one year! Amazing!
Spin away all you like libs but the reality is folks are paying attention and they're getting really pissed off with the direction of this country.
Blue Dog Democrats are scared to death.

Republicans winning local seats in deep blue NYC burbs. Unheard of!!!

Before the elections of yesterday Senate madman Harry Reid let slip that the Senate vote on Obamacare wouldn't come until next year, an election year.
You better believe what happened yesterday gums up the works even more for Harry the maniac.
Blue Dog Democrats are scared right now which is why Harry can't close the deal. They certainly don't want Obamacare on the table next year. Sweet! lol

Rhody, a no-name third party candidate (polling in the single digits a month ago) in upstate NY losses to a DINO, gets 46% of the vote to the DINO's 49% and forces the establishment pro-labor RINO into oblivion. For true conservatives there is much to like with this result. The Matilda Jerzyk's of this world love to spin how Republicans need to run lib-lite. Not true and this race proves it. Lib-lite was forced to drop out of the race and got 5% of the vote. Hope Mr. Owens doesn't got too comfy in that seat. He's a temp employee.

Posted by: Tim at November 4, 2009 1:15 PM

I think many of you are overstating the relationship between governorship races and feelings on a national level. Local issues and national issues are not exactly the same (more of a venn diagram). So in a state such as new jersey which has a history of GOP governors (whitman,kean,cahill) why is it neccesarily a national backlash? Was turnout higher this election in comparable elections or did certain demographics turn out higher? Maybe Corzines pledge to reduce all property taxes from the first campaign he broke had an impact. Maybe it was the sad state of New Jersey politics. Christie ran a good well funded race and did not spout many of the talking points seen coming from the more conservative elements of the GOP. It is a combination of things, little to none can be considered an "obama issue". Virginia went for Obama in 2008, yes but how did he win that state? A high black turnout tied to winning the northern counties of Loudon, Fairfax, Arlington, and Alexandria. Deeds faired WELL in many of those districts, but did not receive as high of a percentage of the vote. Deeds was an awful candidate by far, and his campaign was slow to get off the ground and extremtly off messege. In an off year election with no senate/congress seats up, turnout is always lower. Virginia has nationally trended Dem and will probably continue to do so. I find Joe Bernsteins comments on point about New Jersey, but i do question whether obama really did waste political capital ( a few visits and cutting commercials isnt the same as sending in your own team on the ground level to help organize/get out the vote). These elections have no impact nationally, another drive by media talking point. For example in RI, would electing Don Carcieri signal that RI is unhappy with national democratic policies? Or would it really mean a dislike of local Democratic policies and a distrust of the Dem candidate? Too much attention to media talking points, be that the garbage spun on Fox or MSNBC. The 2 special elections have more of an impact per se. The 23rd was a waste of money for the GOP, money which was needed in the 10th in Cali. The 10th was where the GOP could have scored a seat had it put more time in. The infighting, reluctance to hold primaries for special elections, and a national party dictating to a local party did in the GOP in the 23rd. Hoffman should have focused on more local issues and not look like a jabbering moron anytime someone asked him about something about the district, if he did he would have easily beaten the hapless Owens. Does anyone really think that governorships of 2 states really matter to anyone outside those states?

Posted by: steadman at November 4, 2009 2:11 PM

A pair of things little thought of about VIrginia. Northern Virginia has beceom a D.C. suburb. That is the area that swung Virginia for Obama. Perhaps when it comes to state local elections they are too busy "thinking globally, to act locally".

Many, like myself, thought of Richmond as a sleepy Southern town. In fact it is "racially charged" and devastated by crime. Many of my relatives have moved out. When asked why, it is universally "crime" (this is sometimes "Code" for Black). Perhaps this is a reason for change.

Posted by: Warrington Faust at November 4, 2009 5:24 PM

"Senate madman Harry Reid let slip that the Senate vote on Obamacare wouldn't come until next year, an election year."

Hey! He won't be pushed into artificial deadlines, Tim ...

Posted by: Monique at November 4, 2009 5:30 PM

steadman-Venn diagrams!I learned those in the only math course I ever took that I could understand.They are great tools for a candidate to use to put their campaign energy where it will do the most good.

Posted by: joe bernstein at November 4, 2009 8:28 PM

"Senate madman Harry Reid let slip that the Senate vote on Obamacare wouldn't come until next year, an election year."

Say it isn't so! Massachusetts Dems said they couldn't wait the 145 days for the special election to fill Kennedy's seat, because they needed to be represented to vote on the health care bill. Is Reid saying that the appointed MA Senator will never get the opportunity to vote on the bill? Say it isn't so!

Posted by: Patrick at November 4, 2009 10:00 PM

Joe Bernstein,
Not sure about your response to my venn diagrams. Just used that as an example to show how local/national issues are different. I compared it to a venn diagram, local/nation intersect at somepoint but many other issues are just local or national. Maybe it was a shotty example?

Posted by: steadman at November 5, 2009 11:49 AM

I made the statement about Venn diagrams in a very positive way.They are great for illustrating commonalities and differences at one glance.

Posted by: joe bernstein at November 5, 2009 12:22 PM
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