October 19, 2012

Gallup's First Fully Post-Vice-Presidential Debate Survey Says...

Carroll Andrew Morse

Gallup's 7-day tracking polls now include only the time period after last week's Vice-Presidential debate (October 12th to October 18th). According to their likely voter results, Mitt Romney has a 51-45 lead over Barack Obama, up from the 48-47 lead that Romney held in the results that ended with the day before the debate.

Romney's lead in the likely voter result is down one point from his 52-45 lead from yesterday, which could be related to changes from Tuesday night's Presidential debate beginning to enter the sample.

Registered voter results show a similar trend, with Obama having held a 48-46 lead on the day before the Vice-Presidential debate, while Romney holds a 48-47 lead as of today.


Nate Silver of the New York Times' FiveThirtyEight blog points out that Gallup's likely voter results are an outlier (h/t Jason Becker)...

[I]ts results are deeply inconsistent with the results that other polling firms are showing in the presidential race, and the Gallup poll has a history of performing very poorly when that is the case.

Other national polls show a race that is roughly tied on average...

Silver's popular vote forecast model shows the race at it's tightest on the day after the Vice-Presidential debate (Obama 49.8-49.1), with Obama gaining some slight momentum since then.

I also checked the RealClearPolitics daily poll average, which I believe is a not-very scientific averaging of poll results. It shows the same basic trend around the Vice-Presidential debate as Silver's model, with Romney having had his maximum advantage over Obama right around the Vice-Presidential debate, then a decline a few days afterward. RCP's "average" now has Obama up by a tenth of a percentage point; Silver's model has Obama up by 1.5.

In a related development, I just remembered why I stopped writing horserace prognostication posts!

Comments, although monitored, are not necessarily representative of the views Anchor Rising's contributors or approved by them. We reserve the right to delete or modify comments for any reason.

Too many variables to predict why the electorate is inexorably moving towards Romney. Personally I think the attention span of the average voter is in play. It's easy to be cool and like Obama a month out, but reality comes into the equation three weeks out. The economy is the issue--and Romney will become more and more a frontrunner as independents stop dithering and women understand that, per Maslow's hierarchy of needs, a job (food and shelter) are more important that free birth control. This brought to you, as the next president said, by the letter O and 16T in debt....

Posted by: Mike at October 19, 2012 6:40 PM

"I just remembered why I stopped writing horserace prognostication posts!"

Oh but it's fun!

"and women understand that, per Maslow's hierarchy of needs, a job (food and shelter) are more important that free birth control."

Shhh. We don't want the Obama/Biden campaign to figure that out before November 6.

Posted by: Monique at October 19, 2012 8:32 PM

My prediction:
Obama wins electoral but not the popular vote. It will be a repeat of Bush in 2000.

Posted by: Jim Jebow at October 20, 2012 10:39 AM

What odds would you give for your prediction against the field? I might be tempted to take that action (for entertainment purposes only, of course).

Posted by: Andrew at October 20, 2012 12:23 PM
Post a comment

Remember personal info?

Important note: The text "http:" cannot appear anywhere in your comment.