April 28, 2010

Interesting Poll Results

Justin Katz

Rasmussen reports that Lincoln Chafee (I) and Frank Caprio (D) are currently tied in the race for governor, with John Robitaille (R) pulling 21%. Switch Caprio out for Patrick Lynch, and Chafee goes up to 35%, while Robitaille gains to 26%. Clearly, right-leaning conservatives are still buying Caprio's moderate image.

By way of a wildcard: Governor Carcieri's approval rating jumped 10 percentage points, to 53%, from last month's survey. The governor's been kind of quiet, lately, so I'm not sure what would drive that jump, unless it's a post-flood rally. Although, this might be related:

While Robitaille leads in both three-way races among those who strongly support repeal of the health care law, Chafee earns over 50% support from those who strongly oppose repeal.

A majority of Rhode Islanders support the repeal of the healthcare legislation (51%), which can perhaps be taken as a stand-in for a broader shift of the electorate rightward and toward Republicans. The cult of Obama is still holding relatively strong, with 57% approving of the president's performance. But note this: That means the One now leads our much-maligned governor by a mere four percentage points when it comes to approval.

The Providence Journal reports Rasmussen's healthcare numbers differently than does Rasmussen itself (unless Rasmussen just didn't summarize the results that the Projo cites), but if anything, this the Projo offers a moderated view of a surprising shift that ought to send chills down the spines of Democrats who expected passage of the legislation to kick off an upswing of approval::

The latest poll also showed 48 percent of Rhode Islanders approve of federal health-care reform, with 46 percent opposing it. Support was stronger last month, with 54 percent in favor and 41 percent opposed.
Comments, although monitored, are not necessarily representative of the views Anchor Rising's contributors or approved by them. We reserve the right to delete or modify comments for any reason.

It would be interesting what happens if Lynch wins the Democratic primary for Governor. Labor is not happy with Caprio and it will be interesting how that plays out. Also you have the potential of Dems moving to Chafee if Caprio wins their primary. It would be interesting how soft this support is and whose voters second choice is.
What is missed is the "guilt factor" if you will, of those who voted against Chafee in 2008; in the General Election so the Republicans would not have his vote to put the U.S. Senate control in GOP hands.
As a Republican, I am concerned about the lack of strength on our side.

Posted by: Scott Bill Hirst at April 28, 2010 3:09 PM

I agree with Scott that there may a guilt factor working in Chafee's favor. Also, I wonder if the pension reform issue gave Caprio (and Carcieri) a little run.
Robitaille is making a pretty good showing considering most of his support evaporates if Laffey runs (and I'll believe he's not running when the filing date officially passes).
Don't bet a nickel on this yet - some issue nobody's thought of will create the next poll movement.

Posted by: rhody at April 28, 2010 5:44 PM

Of course, it goes without saying that Rasmussen is a right leaning polling org - maybe we could get some other polls or an average of many. Rasmussen was always about 6 points wrong during the run up to Obamas election. They are known as the "Fox News" of polling outfits.

That said, it's a strange thing that I heard "we don't use polls to determine our decisions" from the righties for 10 years...while they did unpopular things and ruined our country! Now, all of a sudden, they like polls........who wouldn't though?

Republicans seem to change their stripes daily.

As to Hearth Care making Dems more popular...that's silly! The great thing about Obama is that he is willing to tackle problems which do not add to his popularity, but need doing.

That is a leader.

He's doing a bang up job considering what he had and has to work with. I really doubt that McCain/Palin would have done 1/4 of the job.

Romney might be as capable in some departments, but whether he could put together teams as well as Obama is another story.

We need, above all, competent and smart people leading this country and state. The time for talking points is over...we need action.

Posted by: Stuart at April 28, 2010 5:58 PM

"As to Hearth Care making Dems more popular..."

Wow, I had no idea that fireplace repair was such a big issue in the US. I guess whatever keeps you elected.

Posted by: Patrick at April 28, 2010 9:16 PM

Well, sure, Patrick, what with fossil fuels soon to be outlawed ...

Posted by: Monique at April 28, 2010 9:21 PM

And to think, Monique, I figured you were down in the Gulf of Mexico enjoying all that spilt oil which you championed drilling more for......

The problem being that not only did you want the oil, but you wanted it cheap, and therefore allowed Big Oil to lobby for decreased safety and regulation...you know, like those coal miners who just died for the same reason.

Meantime, the body count and the oil slicks build up and you can drive your nice SUV to the soccer matches...and not have to think about it at all.

What a country! That's freedom - when others have to die and have their waters and beaches destroyed for your pleasures....and the savings of a couple of cents per gallon.

Capitalism sure is grand. No better way to shift the actual cost of something to other people not visible on our own horizon.

Posted by: Stuart at April 28, 2010 9:59 PM

What's pretty obvious with these polls is that Caprio is the only viable "official" Democrat in this race. We know Chaffee is a liberal running as a Independent.
Patrick Lynch is nothing more than a horny 15 year old that no one takes seriously as a Gubernatorial candidate.
If Caprio wins the Dem primary he'll be elected Governor. If Lynch wins the Dem primary then Chaffee will win the seat.
It's really important that Independent voters (hello Tea Party) turn out for the Dem primary. That is where many statewide elections will be determined.
Btw Gov. Carcieri at 53% is an amazing number. A two term "Conservative" Repub Gov in a Dem union laden state with a bad unemployment number to be above the 40 % line in any poll is a major accomplishment.

Stuey tell us about your brethren in China and their rules and regulations for safety and pollution control. lol
Stuey keep on writing here babe. You are absolutely hilarious.
Happy May Day Stuey!

Posted by: Tim at April 29, 2010 7:09 AM

I think it's much too early to rely on polls for an accurate forecast of what's to come during election season.

Caprio, Lynch and Chaffee started at a HUGE advantage given their name recognition in the state of RI. Robitaille is still catching up in terms of getting his name out there and making Rhode Islanders aware that he certainly is the REAL deal!

I'm confident Robitaille will continue to gain ground in the polls as the campaign progresses. He's got a lot up his sleeve! Pretty soon, Rhode Islanders will realize that if they want someone to truly represent their interests of lower taxes and lean, accountable government, Robitaille is the man for the job.

This kid from Central Falls doesn't have the advantage of being born into a political legacy family. Just give it time...

Posted by: SBL at April 29, 2010 9:41 AM

Robitaille is probably the guy to watch here. I just think if he gets additional support, it'll come out of Caprio's hide (I don't think he takes Chafee or Lynch votes). Frank ignores him at his own peril.
This leaves the right on the horns of a dilemma. Do they abandon Robitaille if they decide Caprio's more electable?
Also, Rasmussen should include Block (thought I'm not sure he gets 5 percent), or at least include "other candidates" in the poll.

Posted by: rhody at April 29, 2010 11:37 AM

I think labor will have a greater influence in the Democratic Primary than of course the general election which means Lynch could still win a Democratic primary for Governor, and I do think labor will be more motivated than past years politically. Small turnouts in primaries can impact races a great deal especially when an interest group is motivated.
Generally speaking, I assume organized labor will be more motivated to vote in a Democratic primary than tea party types,. Caprio has not endeared himself to organized labor.
I have not committed in the Republican race for Governor and I am a GOP leader so I plan to support the GOP nominee. However I am concerned at present of both Mr. Robitaille and Mr. Moffitt addressing their potential for electability. I don't assume Steve Laffey will get into the race.

Posted by: Scott Bill Hirst at April 29, 2010 6:49 PM
Post a comment

Remember personal info?

Important note: The text "http:" cannot appear anywhere in your comment.