May 7, 2008

Rhode Island Persuades My Skeptics

Justin Katz

Well, it took some time, but apparently, Roland Benjamin's been persuaded:

The info on shrinking tax receipts was predictable given Justin's demographic research here.

Because we have replaced around 29,000 people from above 3x FPL (about $60k in household income) with 25,000 below that threshold, the tax receipts should follow that. And they did.

Above $60k in earnings, a household is likely to be paying more in taxes than they are consuming in public services. The inverse will also be true.

My only skepticism with the original research was that tax receipts had not reflected the trend. Today's front page of the Projo removes any doubt.

"Holding the line" on taxes, when we are clearly chasing taxpayers out will simply preserve this outbound trend.

What the other side (which, to be clear, by no stretch includes Roland) has been desperately hoping to ignore is that these trends have a natural lag. The suggestion of the stunning income outmigration on the charts to which Roland links is that the exodus began in earnest in 2005. That's income reported on tax returns filed in 2006, some of it no doubt from people who continued to work in Rhode Island, thus making them liable for RI taxes, with some of the government revenue (as I've theorized) temporarily boosted by taxes on the activities entailed in packing up and moving.

I'm keeping my eye out for Census and IRS data for 2007, and although I'd be thrilled to find my prediction wrong, I fully expect to see the upper-income categories that have thus far held steady turning south. Once that happens, it's start-a-fire-or-lights-out time.

Comments, although monitored, are not necessarily representative of the views Anchor Rising's contributors or approved by them. We reserve the right to delete or modify comments for any reason.

except that you are wrong.

Posted by: Pat Crowley at May 7, 2008 12:33 PM

Convincing argument, Duck Boy.

Oh hey, you'll like this, Ducky.

Every teacher I talk to I tell them the same thing. "Get rid of that Teamster Thug you have at the RINEA and maybe the people would take you more seriously."

What do I hear back more often than not? "Yeah, I know..."

Posted by: Greg at May 7, 2008 12:47 PM

Unfortunately, Crowley benefits from the depressing fact that most teachers are cowards when it comes to challenging their union leadership, regardless of the latter's behavior.

Along with rising costs, work to rule, and RI falling further behind Massachusetts on NAEP scores (even after adjusting for demographic differences), this cowardice is a big reason teachers have fallen so far in the public's esteem.

Of course, knowing you are a coward also destroys teachers' own self-esteem, and helps to breed the sense of defeat, cynicism, and "just counting my days until I can retire" that you seen in too many public schools.

It therefore comes as no surprise that said teachers counsel their students to avoid dealing with bullies the old fashioned way, and instead walk away from confrontations with them...

Posted by: John at May 7, 2008 1:56 PM

My son and his male partner(yes they are
gay)took their 200,000 plus combined earnings to Gay friendly Mass.They
both work for multi-national companies
out of home offices,and can live where ever the want.
Thousand of other Gay couples like them have done the same, moving to Mass Conn NH VT and yes even Maine,At the urging of Mr &Mrs Carcieri and the radical right wing people at Anchor Rising.

Posted by: kalaust at May 7, 2008 8:16 PM

Who do you think you are kidding? It wasn't to get away from the Carcieri's.
That had nothing to do with it. It was the taxes they were gagging on.
Even hypocritical liberals can't stand paying taxes to support moronic social/welfare/union policies.

Posted by: Mike Cappelli at May 7, 2008 8:29 PM

... er, Kalaust, whether or not Rhode Island is "gay-friendly" is entirely in the hands of the Democrat controlled General Assembly.

In any case, I'm sorry to hear that the state has lost two productive residents.

(Hey, Justin, as radicals, shouldn't we - contributors and commenters - be wearing headbands and arm bands and holding clandestine meetings in someone's basement?)

Posted by: Monique at May 7, 2008 10:03 PM

Mr Mike Cappelli
No I am not kidding, just the actual facts
Did you attend Republican, Rep Victor Moffitt's State House Anti-Gay "Hate Rally" were his ardent right-wing suporters blamed gays for the Station Nightclub fire and for 9/11,Moffitt said nothing that day,but was forced to appologise the next day, by the good liberals from coventry

Posted by: kalaust at May 7, 2008 10:26 PM

Kalaust, I'm confused. You said initially that the Governor and Anchor Rising was to blame for Rhode Island being a gay-unfriendly state and causing your son and his partner to move out. Now it's someone else?

And did you see my comment as to who holds the power on this issue? [Reiterating: the Democrat controlled General Assembly.] Isn't that good news? Now you know who to go and lobby to make the change that you perceive is necessary.

Posted by: Monique at May 8, 2008 12:16 AM

Hey now, Mr. Broad-Brush. I'm the biggest pro-gay marriage supporter on this entire site. I'm a firm believer that they should be allowed to be as miserable as the rest of us.

Posted by: Greg at May 8, 2008 7:39 AM

Correct me if I am wrong, but doesn't Governor Carcieri have gay people on his staff? I heard he does.

Posted by: Citizen Critic at May 11, 2008 2:04 PM
Post a comment

Remember personal info?

Important note: The text "http:" cannot appear anywhere in your comment.