January 22, 2008

GOP Primary: Where We Are, What's Coming

Marc Comtois

First things first, here is the current GOP delegate count according to RealClearPolitics:


"Super Tuesday" is February 5, but there are two primaries before then: Florida and Maine. Florida is so important because it is a winner take all contest with 57 delegates up for grabs (it actually has more, but the GOP has penalized the state for moving their primary up in the calendar). Maine has 21 delegates at stake and awards them proportionally, like the previous states have done. Obviously, Florida is a big deal and marks the first time this primary season where a primary is actually as important as the media is playing it up to be. Here is the Real Clear Politics Poll Average for Florida:


It looks like McCain, Romney and Guiliani are all within striking distance of winning (I think we are witnessing the Huckabee Waterloo). If Giuliani can win, he instantly becomes a contender, which has been his strategy all along. If McCain or Romney win, that probably knocks Rudy out and (obviously) strengthens the winner going into Super Tuesday, which has 991 delegates up for grabs (with 373 coming from winner-take-all states).

That being said, there's a significant likelihood that I'm talking out of my posterior, so Michael Barone might be a better place to go for your primary prognostication!

UPDATE: Now that Fred Thompson has dropped out, there is a solid 8-10% of the GOP electorate now searching for a new candidate. I wonder who will benefit?

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Although I am certainly biased, I think Romney will be the primary beneficiary of Fred's departure.

I also think that Fred should be considered as a very serious VP contender, in the event that Romney, Huckabee, or Giuliani are the nominees. Fred's a good consideration if one needs to "balance the ticket" ideologically, regionally, or for age/experience.

I just don't see it happening if McCain is the nominee, if only because their combined ages would exceed those of a Galapagos tortoise.

Posted by: Will at January 22, 2008 4:56 PM

Romney sucks. He is as transparently phony as a progressive budget proposa.

Posted by: Mike at January 22, 2008 8:49 PM

I'm depressed. The best man for the job, Duncan Hunter, was treated like a fringe candidate by the media and never caught on. Now my second, and only other choice, Fred Thompson is out.

I have that same feeling I had after Laffey lost the primary last year. Now what?

Posted by: mikeinRI at January 22, 2008 9:53 PM

I hear 'ya mikeinRI.

Under no circumstances will I vote for Juan McAmnesty (a/k/a almost Kerry-McCain '2004).

Ditto pro-amnesty / pro-gun control / pro-abortion / pro-gay marriage Giuliani.

As for RIN-Omney, well, I might hold my nose and vote for him in the general election should he become the nominee. Then again, I may just not vote for any Presidential candidate this cycle.

It's all soooo depressing.

Posted by: Ragin' Rhode Islander at January 22, 2008 10:14 PM

How ironic and typical of this crazy primary season: just a week after Ronald Reagan's favorite periodical "Human Evants" endorsed Thompson and reported a mighty stirring of activity on his part, he drops out. Not a bad candidate at all even though social conservatives had some questions concerning his lobbying efforts and his less-than-full understanding and pronouncements on right to life and other issues. The Rhode Island Republican Assembly, an offshoot of the organization that propelled Reagan to power, had a majority of its members (but not the critical two-thirds for an official endorsement) supporting him. The California Republican Assembly, Reagan's support base, had a majority of its members supporting Duncan Hunter (but, again, not the required two-thirds for official endorsement). Perhaps Hunter, a very fine and supportable candidate who probably just missed Minuteman leader Jim Gilchrist's endorsement [which went to Huckabee instead for his more thorough plan to stem illegal immigration], had the right idea when he ended his Presidential bid by criticizing Romney's Bain Venture Capital company for trying to team up with Red China to buy American defense technology by buying an American defense company. (This is the same Red China that legally gives Bill Clinton millions of dollars for representing a state owned suit manufacturer, that gets Corning Glass Company to contribute to Hillary Clinton in order for it to be able to do business on the mainland, etc. Do we detect foreign interference in our democratic process? Has it crept into the Republican Party?) Hunter goes out with grace and true patriotism. Will Romney get his supporters? Perhaps he will in Rhode Island where morals don't count [e.g., the only state where prostitution is legal everywhere within its boundaries, the nation's leader in its state abortion rate, the state where the former mayor of its dominant city owns the building that houses its largest whorehouse, etc., ad nauseam]. Yet will these supporters really want Romney to carry out his socialist, government partnering with the auto industry, recent promises to Michigan voters? Or will the not too sophisticated in foreign policy--very similar to Reagan in this respect-- Huckabee get their votes? After all, "Victory" had a lot to do with the Reagan appointed CIA's head Casey fighting an economic war with the former Soviet Union. Does Huckabee's recognition of these factors, translated to our relations with Red China, mean anything to the average voter? Or will lack of morals trump the survival instinct?

Posted by: Barry at January 23, 2008 9:48 AM

Obviously I want Huckabee to win and running as a delegate for him in rhode Island's 2ND District.
The lottery for ballot placement will take place on Friday, February 1ST at the State House in the Governor's Eewception Room at 5:00 PM,. The RI GOP will have its next state committee meeting at the RI Shriners,One Rhodes Place, in Cranston, Monday Febuary 4TH, at 6:30 PM but I assume that is the Executive Committee first?.
Correct me on the dates and times but believe them to be correct.The Shriners is near the Rhodes On The Pawtuxet Ballroom in Edgewood.
BTW the GOP will have more Presidential candidates on the March 4TH primary ballot in RI then the Dems and numerous delegates candidates particularly favor Huckabee and McCain.

Posted by: Scott Bill Hirst at January 23, 2008 6:34 PM
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