September 13, 2006

Washington Post: Go Negative To Win

Carroll Andrew Morse

Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post sums up Rhode Island’s Republican Primary as follows (h/t RI Future)…

[Winner] Republican Turnout Operation: Say what you will about President Bush's dismal approval ratings and the toxic national political environment for his party. But once again, Republicans showed they know how to turn out the voters they need to win elections. They made nearly 200,000 voter contacts in the final 11 days of the Rhode Island Senate campaign and the state was flooded with staff from around the country. For all the criticism -- much of it spot-on -- that the National Republican Senatorial Committee has received this cycle, the organization deserve major kudos for its work here. In addition to the ground game, the NRSC spent heavily on an ad campaign to bolster Chafee and weaken Laffey. It worked. Chafee's victory over the more conservative Laffey puts Republicans a much better position to hold this seat in November….

[Loser] Positive Ads: Laffey's refusal to attack Chafee on television in the Rhode Island primary race played a major role in his loss. While Chafee's campaign bashed the Cranston Mayor on television, Laffey ran NOT ONE negative (or comparative) ad against the incumbent in the final two months of the campaign. Yes, we know that polling shows people don't like negative campaign commercials and that it breeds cynicism in the political process. It also happens to work. By not answering Chafee's hits with some of his own, Laffey left the impression in the minds of some voters that the allegations were true. It's Campaign 101; some things in politics just don't change.

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So the guy with the 'ego the size of Texas' ran a clean campaign and lost while the 'nice guy' ran a campaign full of half-truths and outright lies and won.

Yeah, something is seriously wrong with the way we do politics.

Posted by: Greg at September 13, 2006 1:01 PM

The CFG ads were negative and spared Laffey the "approved this message" tag. However, I still think someone focused on more than pure economics could have hurt Chafee worse. No doubt, there are some in-state that would love a local Bridge to Nowhere. Construction jobs!

Posted by: rhodeymark at September 13, 2006 2:06 PM

The CFG ads were negative, but they were true. Chafee and Rove can't say the same.

Posted by: Greg at September 13, 2006 2:09 PM

Today's New York Times says it all-
"In Setback for Democrats, Republican Wins Senate Primary"
I goes on to say "Chafee's victory...dealt the Democrats a big setback"
No more true words can be spoken. The only ones crying today are Harry reid and the Club For Losers.

Posted by: Mike at September 13, 2006 3:22 PM

The CFG ads were tame, and never got anywhere close to the personally negative stuff and the outright lies that the Chafee and NRSC ads got to. They proved they will do anything to win.

On the other hand, Laffey can be very proud of the campaign he ran -- I can hardly say that about Chafee. Unfortunately for Chafee, I think what he allowed to be done on his behalf with come back to bite him in November. Elephants don't forget.

Posted by: Will at September 13, 2006 5:04 PM

----The CFG ads were tame, and never got anywhere close to the personally negative stuff and the outright lies that the Chafee and NRSC ads got to. They proved they will do anything to win. ---
Come on. I was one of the people who put our sweat into the Laffey/Reilly race and got out a bunch of people who had never voted in a Rep. primary. We trusted him to keep his word and curb the unions-and he stabbed us in the back. Wonder why (as I predidicted on this blog) he barely carried Cranston? Then you don't live in Cranston.
1. Spending-Cranston's budget is at its highest EVER.
2. Unions-Exactly "zero" was done to institute 401K pensions, stop the police/fire "retire at 40" scam, stop phony disability pensions. The unfunded pension liability for the city is at an all time high of $200 million. He fired 2 dozen crossing guards. Great-but not even the tip of a deadly iceberg.
3. Illegals-He had exactly one of the dozens of Providence parents who openly send their kids to school here arrested. Then, after the Hispanic bosses put the pressure on him he DROPPED the charges the very next day and ordered a permanent end to the prosecutions. You can see the results yourselves right on Park Ave. every day as scores of kids costing taxpayers hundreds of thousands a year brazenly get of RIPTA buses from South Providence.
The guy is an unprincipled charlatan. He is against abortion then flip-flops when he announces. He is 100% for Bush when he announces but when the polls turn around he calls Chafee "Bush's candidate". Even the 46% he got was misleading as RI Future and other left wing outfits have for months been promoting their flock to vote for Laffey(for obvious reasons).

Posted by: Mike at September 13, 2006 7:26 PM

Hey, Mike:

Catch the new RIPEC Report this week? You know, the one that showed our social welfare spending much higher than neighboring states? Like the fact that our tax rates are so much higher? Or that we pay far more than most states for public education, yet lag way behind #1 ranked Massachusetts, even after poverty is taken into account? Like that we have the 9th heaviest per capita public sector debt burden? Or what about the third worst underfunding of our public sector retirement plans?

What I'm reallly dying to hear is how, after you're done celebrating Laffey's defeat, you propose to solve these problems (that, by the way, didn't go away on Tuesday night)...Or is your real interest just nailing Laffey, and RI taxpayers be damned?

Posted by: john at September 13, 2006 8:09 PM

[posted elsewhere]

"It also happens to work."

Defeat, even one as bitter as this, is still a teacher.

One thing I learned is never underestimate the power of evil men and their diabolical schemes. Particularly when you know their track record.

Karl Rove and the late Lee Atwater were, and in Rove’s case, still are the masters of this malevolent craft. Drive the negatives unbearably up on your opponent with relentless fervor, and then spend whatever it takes on GOTV. It can backfire, and it has, but not this time in RI.

Like any addiction the lust for power at any price drives some to dark and devious shores. These foul tactics are reminiscent of Stalin and Pol Pot not Adams and Hopkins. Cowardice not valor is at the core of this approach. Like Longshanks (King Edward I) in the film Braveheart the beltway kings and princes rule with iron not grace, and their loyalty is not to the American people they are sworn to serve but rather to the wormwood of their own bellies.

Thankfully they will eventually reap what they have sown.

SV

Posted by: Sol Venturi at September 13, 2006 10:55 PM

Look, it's over but let's face it, Chafee had the better operation. He apparently had an excellent GOTV effort and didn't take anything for granted.

Laffey went positive only after he thought he had a double-digit lead in the polls. Just take a look at the negative press releases about Chafee that still appear on the soon-to-defunct Laffey website from months ago. The bottom line was that Laffey mistakenly thought he had broken out a big lead and went positive.

How many times did see we see posts on this blog saying things like "Chafee's done, put a fork in him" or "I can't go into details but internal polls show Laffey with a double-digit lead".

Somewhat fittingly, it was pride and arrogance that led Laffey to be overconfident.

Laffey never imagined Chafee would able to increase the primary universe to 63,000 voters. So he began to appear on national TV, ignored the local press and took the Monday before the election off to "remember 9/11". All the while Chafee's camp worked frantically to get their people to the polls.

Laffey went positive because he thought it would help him win--and that's the only reason. CFG continued to hammer at Chafee with just as much negativity as the NRSC.

Posted by: Anthony at September 14, 2006 1:52 PM

Although the ads were important, the voter turnout was clearly the more pivotal factor that contributed to Chafee's victory. See what The Hotline had this to say about voter turnout:

“Rhode Island will become a case study in the effectiveness of the Republicans’ 72 Hour Program. Behind the curtain, Chafee’s campaign spent $500,000 to squeeze out every conceivable voter from neighborhoods across the state. They searched for independents who voted Democrat in municipal elections but who had once upon a time voted for a Republican for president or governor or senator. There were a few of those. They looked for non-affiliated voters in Republican neighborhoods. Using microtargeting techniques, they even tried to figure out which committed Democrats might be tempted to vote for Chafee.

By the end of the summer, Chafee’s campaign had identified 42,000 potential supporters. Then the second part of the program kicked in. Message, here, is a verb. The campaign “messaged” these voters, often individually. Chafee himself called more than 100 of them who were identified as being capable of swinging the votes of colleagues and friends. The standard complement of robocalls, mailings and personal visits were employed. In the twelve days of September, Chafee, the RNC and NRSC made more than 198,000 phone calls to the voters on their list. Many voters received one every two days.

On election day, the Chafee campaign stationed poll watchers at 100 key precincts across the state. By 10:00 am, the RNC and the NRSC were confident that Chafee would win.

It didn’t faze them when Laffey’s campaign bragged about meeting their targets. Chafee had simply found more voters. Laffey’s turnout was sufficient for a universe of Republicans and identified conservatives. But Chafee had found just about every Republican he could hope for and managed to attract at least 10,000 non-Republicans to his tally. One Republican in the state estimates that as many as 60 percent of the primary electorate were not affiliated with the Republican Party. (More than 20,000 Rhose Islanders requested formal disaffiliation forms after voting.) Chafee even managed to blunt Laffey's margin of victory in Cranston to just a few hundred votes.

Posted by: PinkElephant at September 14, 2006 2:34 PM

Although the ads were important, the voter turnout was clearly the more pivotal factor that contributed to Chafee's victory. See what The Hotline had this to say about voter turnout:

“Rhode Island will become a case study in the effectiveness of the Republicans’ 72 Hour Program. Behind the curtain, Chafee’s campaign spent $500,000 to squeeze out every conceivable voter from neighborhoods across the state. They searched for independents who voted Democrat in municipal elections but who had once upon a time voted for a Republican for president or governor or senator. There were a few of those. They looked for non-affiliated voters in Republican neighborhoods. Using microtargeting techniques, they even tried to figure out which committed Democrats might be tempted to vote for Chafee.

By the end of the summer, Chafee’s campaign had identified 42,000 potential supporters. Then the second part of the program kicked in. Message, here, is a verb. The campaign “messaged” these voters, often individually. Chafee himself called more than 100 of them who were identified as being capable of swinging the votes of colleagues and friends. The standard complement of robocalls, mailings and personal visits were employed. In the twelve days of September, Chafee, the RNC and NRSC made more than 198,000 phone calls to the voters on their list. Many voters received one every two days.

On election day, the Chafee campaign stationed poll watchers at 100 key precincts across the state. By 10:00 am, the RNC and the NRSC were confident that Chafee would win.

It didn’t faze them when Laffey’s campaign bragged about meeting their targets. Chafee had simply found more voters. Laffey’s turnout was sufficient for a universe of Republicans and identified conservatives. But Chafee had found just about every Republican he could hope for and managed to attract at least 10,000 non-Republicans to his tally. One Republican in the state estimates that as many as 60 percent of the primary electorate were not affiliated with the Republican Party. (More than 20,000 Rhose Islanders requested formal disaffiliation forms after voting.) Chafee even managed to blunt Laffey's margin of victory in Cranston to just a few hundred votes.

Posted by: PinkElephant at September 14, 2006 2:34 PM

Am I the only voter in Rhode Island who didn't get a call or mailing or even e-mailing from either candidate? Or did they assume because I live in North Providence, I was turning out for (gag) Mollis? My phone number's unlisted, but people find ways to get it.
I'm unaffiliated, but was listed for a few years as a Democrat because I usually vote in their primaries and forgot to disaffiliate. My only connection with Laffey would be living in Cranston in the late '80s, but I have more with Chafee - growing up in Warwick, my father having worked for him his entire run as mayor and my mother still living in Warwick (topping any list of registered Dems likely to vote for Linc).
I get e-mail from both parties' national committees every day, but can't recall an RNC one about Chafee.

Posted by: Rhody at September 14, 2006 3:20 PM

--Catch the new RIPEC Report this week? You know, the one that showed our social welfare spending much higher than neighboring states?
What I'm reallly dying to hear is how, after you're done celebrating Laffey's defeat, you propose to solve these problems--

The same things I have been here flagging for months-the same thinings LAFF-ey failed to do to even the slightest degree:
Go to 401K for all state/city workers, 20% health care co-pays for ALL-new and existing, end the "retire at 40" police/fire scam-everyone works till 62, at desk job if need be, end disability claims-let them get social security and private disability insurance like the rest of us, fewer fire, police and teachers-increase class size by 30%, don't pay anyone who works for the state more than the governor. Cap property taxes at inflation rate-not a penny more with NO "emergency" outs. No more Laffey 20% increases. How's that for a start? New Hampshire, with MORE people than RI has a state budget half of ours.

Posted by: Mike at September 14, 2006 7:26 PM