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September 12, 2006

Primary Results & Magic Numbers

Carroll Andrew Morse

Secretary of State: (98% of precincts reporting)

Ralph Mollis38,73152.7%
Guillame de Ramel34,78547.3%

To catch up, De Ramel needs to win…

  • 80.4% of the remaining vote, if 80,000 people voted.
  • 57.4% of the remaining vote, if 100,000 people voted.
  • 54.2% of the remaining vote, if 120,000 people voted.
It looks like incumbents Chafee and Langevin are successful. Only race still left is the Democratic Secretary of State...

US Senate: (52% of precincts reporting)

Lincoln Chafee23,40356.1%
Steve Laffey18,29343.9%

To catch up, Laffey needs to win…

  • More votes than are remaining, if 35,000 people voted.
  • More votes than are remaining, if 45,000 people voted.
  • 69.2% of the remaining vote, if 55,000 people voted.

Secretary of State: (72% of precincts reporting)

Ralph Mollis25,79651.1%
Guillame de Ramel24,63748.9%

To catch up, De Ramel needs to win…

  • 52.0% of the remaining vote, if 80,000 people voted.
  • 51.2% of the remaining vote, if 100,000 people voted.
  • 50.8% of the remaining vote, if 120,000 people voted.

US Congress, Dist 2: (69% of precincts reporting)

James Langevin17,29561.7%
Jennifer Lawless10,72538.3%

To catch up, Lawless needs to win…

  • 77.4% of the remaining vote, if 40,000 people voted.
  • 64.9% of the remaining vote, if 50,000 people voted.
  • 60.3% of the remaining vote, if 60,000 people voted.

At this point, Reginald Centracchio, Jon Scott, and Elizabeth Roberts all seem pretty safe, so I'll take them off the board. Here's the last post that had them all...

US Senate: (25% of precincts reporting)

Lincoln Chafee12,04553.9%
Steve Laffey10,29246.1%

To catch up, Laffey needs to win…

  • 56.9% of the remaining vote, if 35,000 people voted.
  • 53.9% of the remaining vote, if 45,000 people voted.
  • 52.7% of the remaining vote, if 55,000 people voted.

Lt. Gov (R): (25% of precincts reporting)

Reginald Centracchio12,16563.9%
Kerry King6,87336.1%

To catch up, King needs to win…

  • 74.1% of the remaining vote, if 30,000 people voted.
  • 62.6% of the remaining vote, if 40,000 people voted.
  • 58.5% of the remaining vote, if 50,000 people voted.

US Congress, Dist 1: (34% of precincts reporting)

Jon Scott6,12872.3%
Ed Leather2,34927.7%

To catch up, Leather needs to win…

  • 79.0% of the remaining vote, if 15,000 people voted.
  • 66.4% of the remaining vote, if 20,000 people voted.
  • 61.4% of the remaining vote, if 25,000 people voted.

Secretary of State: (14% of precincts reporting)

Ralph Mollis4,05742.5%
Guillame de Ramel5,48857.5%

To catch up, Mollis needs to win…

  • 51.0% of the remaining vote, if 80,000 people voted.
  • 50.8% of the remaining vote, if 100,000 people voted.
  • 50.6% of the remaining vote, if 120,000 people voted.

Lt. Gov (D): (14% of precincts reporting)

Elizabeth Roberts7,59281.9%
Spencer Dickinson1,67718.1%

To catch up, Dickinson needs to win…

  • 54.2% of the remaining vote, if 80,000 people voted.
  • 53.3% of the remaining vote, if 100,000 people voted.
  • 52.7% of the remaining vote, if 120,000 people voted.

US Congress, Dist 2: (20% of precincts reporting)

James Langevin3,41055.5%
Jennifer Lawless2,73744.5%

To catch up, Lawless needs to win…

  • 51.0% of the remaining vote, if 40,000 people voted.
  • 50.8% of the remaining vote, if 50,000 people voted.
  • 50.6% of the remaining vote, if 60,000 people voted.
Comments

As a conservative, I'm pulling for Laffey, but I'm not sure he could win in the General Election. Oh well, as I live in Texas, I can only hope.

I'm not sure Chafee has a shot either, even if I do consider him a most "liberal" republican.

Posted by: GM Roper at September 12, 2006 9:14 PM

Chafee is killing him! WOOOOOOHOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!

Posted by: John Ether at September 12, 2006 10:06 PM

Huge turnout...almost at the record, and we only are at 65%

Posted by: Joel at September 12, 2006 10:08 PM

I'm a conservative too, but I'd rather have a senator who votes my way 25% of the time(Chafee) than none of the time(Whitehouse).

Posted by: swami at September 12, 2006 10:10 PM

Washington

Posted by: James Biddle at September 12, 2006 10:22 PM

is safe for Chafe!

Posted by: James Biddle at September 12, 2006 10:23 PM

I really hope Mollis wins. After the last few months of reading Rhode Island's Future, I know exactly why I shouldn't vote for him.

Posted by: Mario at September 12, 2006 10:28 PM

LAFFEY CONCEDES!

Posted by: Joel at September 12, 2006 10:41 PM

From the preliminary numbers, it sounds like Cranston didn't come through for Laffey, which would be the difference in this race (and one of the stations reported Chafee actually won a precinct in western Cranston).
After all, they know him best.

Posted by: Rhody at September 12, 2006 10:41 PM

Out of pure respect for Lincoln Chafee, I will be writing in his father's name in November. I'll still be voting Republican, just like he did in 2004.

Posted by: Greg at September 12, 2006 10:44 PM

I beg everybody on this board to get behind Sue Stenhouse in November. Mollis must be stopped.

Posted by: Rhody at September 12, 2006 10:48 PM

Gotta feel real good about those Democrats helping win the Republican primary! Do the math on the total votes for other statewide Republicans and you can see as much as between 20 and 50% fewer votes cast in those races. Way to go, RIGOP!!! Forgot about gaining a few seats in the General Assembly, you cannot even control your own primary.

The disaffiliation process is a joke - people across the country do not understand it. At least Bush and the NRSC are consistent in their win at all costs strategies - they have no shame but that will come back to bite them. Let's get Linc into the Senate so we can see him dissaffiliate from the Republican party and then have the last laugh over everyone.

Now we can all sleep safer...right.

Tim2

Posted by: Tim2 at September 12, 2006 11:06 PM

I was at the Laffey party down in Warwick (and so I'm told on t.v.)

The mood was upbeat until channel 12 showed Chafee ahead by four thousand votes with 81 percent of precincts reporting.

Laffey threw his support behind Chafee. I really don't think I can do that.

Posted by: don roach at September 12, 2006 11:43 PM

Mollis must be stopped? Are we forgetting PATRICK KENNEDY? Will we throw 100% support behind this Scott guy? I'd say almost 70% is pretty good

Posted by: dwinger at September 13, 2006 12:30 AM

I will not, repeat will not, vote for Chafee under any circumstances.

Up until now, I've been saying that if Chafee wins the primary I'd just "sit out" that race in November.

But in light of how Chafee openly courted non-Republicans to steal the primary, and the national GOP backing him in that effort - when they have no business getting involved in a state primary - I'm really considering voting for Whitehouse in November ... and I'm about as "far right" as they come.

In this primary the GOP and RIGOP have effectively said "F-you" to the Republican base.

Yeah, Whitehouse represents everything I loathe politically. But then, so to does Chafee.

Perhaps I'll calm down and go back to sitting out the Senate race in November. But after being stabbed in the back by the national GOP, tonight I'm really feeling like yelling "F-you" back at the newly liberal national GOP establishment and voting for Whitehouse.

If we're fated to have a liberal in the Senate, and one backed by his national party, then we might as well have one with a "D" after his name rather than a pretender.

The national GOP ran a smear campaign against a relatively "genuine" Republican - only to protect a liberal Republican.

The national GOP has lost its way, and deserves to lose Congress.

Posted by: Tom W at September 13, 2006 12:31 AM

Dwinger, you're right. Patrick lost my vote when he cast his lot with the legbreakers. At least Langevin had the testicular fortitude to just say no to that crew.

Posted by: Rhody at September 13, 2006 12:46 AM

While I largely agree with Tom's commentary, I will not consider voting for Whitehouse. However, that doesn't mean that I plan to now vote for the lesser of two evils, Mr. Chafee. I will most likely make a write-in vote. I believe that Mr. Chafee is a good man, but he allowed an absolutely evil campaign to be waged on his behalf by the NRSC. I cannot forgive that. I voted for Senator Chafee in 2000, and have truly regreted it ever since.

All that being said, I'm not going to put down any Laffey supporter, who decides for party reasons, to vote for Senator Chafee in November. That's a personal decision and I respect that. However, for me personally, this election is now over.

Posted by: Will at September 13, 2006 1:36 AM

I'm also planning to hold my nose and vote for Chafee, if only because I'd rather write in Joe Stalin than vote for Sheldon Whitehouse. I'm still extremely upset with the way the national and state party machinery turned on Laffey.

Posted by: Roger Williams at September 13, 2006 3:40 AM

I'm sure the Chafee camp is scared about the six people that post on this board either not voting or voting for Whitehouse. You're irrelevant! :-)

You all sound like you need your pacifiers.

Posted by: Rino Cooke at September 13, 2006 9:13 AM

Rino, they ARE concerned about how to win back the 30,000 voters who DIDN'T support Mr. "My Daddy Used to be Senator" and they should be.

Posted by: Greg at September 13, 2006 9:33 AM

Hey Rhody, does Sue Stenhouse have a website? can you post her link for me id she does? I am an independent trying to decide who I am voting for in the general election.

thx

Posted by: Noni Roach at September 13, 2006 1:41 PM


"does Sue Stenhouse have a website?"

(Thanks for asking, Noni.)


http://www.stenhouse2006.com/

Posted by: SusanD at September 14, 2006 12:37 PM